Sunday Morning Musings

So what is going on with influenza like illness?  We have seen a significant drop in the rate after a spike in September and October.  We are now at rates that are very similar to last year in late January.  Given that we see a 33% Fibonacci return in this chaotic statistic, the knee will mirror 2009 February and March results or just another normal flu season. Graph at this link.

There has been much chatter about the efficaciousness of the H1N1 vaccine.  The EU in particular is taking on the large pharmaceuticals over this issue.  I believe that the H1N1 is a none-mutating virus to date and has effectively played havoc with people that were susceptible.  The reason that the spike occurred in September and October instead of later is because this is the first drop in serum levels of vitamin D in the northern latitudes.  A similar type of occurrence happened in the southern hemisphere in our summer which makes me wonder at the push by our government over the vaccine.  We have been much more effective is getting the message out about vitamin D.  If the spike in February is not similar to last year and also make a Fibonacci return then people in the US have blunted the virus by taking vitamin D.  I know that this is a very technical mathematical predication, but if you deal with stocks or currency trading, you know this analysis is correct.  The technical changes are very predictable in chaotic markets as long as there is not a fundamental change like an economic news such as an increase in the number of lost jobs.  In our case the fundamental change is increased use of vitamin D.

I have been keeping up with people that I have casual conversations about vitamin D and whether their doctor has ask to check their serum 25(OH)D levels.  I am happy to say that approximately 1 out of 6 of the people that I have talked with has had their serum level checked.  This is up from zero 5 years ago.  Dr. John Cannell of the Vitamin D Council goal is to have every one’s serum vitamin D routinely check by their physician.  John, I believe that we are starting to reach a tipping point.   However, even at this low rate we could see as much as a 5% drop in the rate of total cancer in the US over the next two years.  I know that this is a bold prediction but the research is there.  If the Food and Nutrition Board on vitamin D comes out with a favorable report in May saying that everyone should take more, the amount of reduction in cancer will amaze you as well as heart disease and diabetes in more time as these diseases take longer to respond.  The manufacturers of cold remedies will start to feel the pinch as people start to use significantly less.  They will simply create other products to fill the voids.

Interesting article at Boots WebMD saying that increased levels of vitamin D could reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer by 40%.  I do not know what the big deal is.  In November of 2007 the National Cancer Institute came out with a report as a rebuttal to the Lappe finding at Creighton University.  The Lappe finding showed a 60% ( or 77% when taking out the tumors not found in the initial screening that occurred in the first year of the trial) reduction in total cancer in a placebo control double blind study.  NCI did an epidemiological study based on flawed data (questionable and two few actual test data on serum levels of vitamin D) and even then as you read through the abstract it said something to the effect that there was no relationship between higher vitamin D levels and cancer except that there was a 75% reduction in death from colorectal cancer in the higher quintals of vitamin D.  Well dang NCI isn’t this enough to trigger treatment trials with people with cancer and not just prevention trials.  Maybe they are not just ignoring the facts but acting with disdain.  Given these numbers you can see why I think that just a modest improvement in supplementation and (trips to the Caribbean or Hawaii in the winter for you rich people) will have significant impact on cancer.

You know one of the things that I have notice when talking with people is the lack of consistency in taking vitamin D.  They typically take two small an amount when supplementing or they just skip days while taking this small amount.  Remember the serum half life of vitamin D at 30 ng/ml is approximately three weeks.  This means that after three weeks with no supplementation or exposure to tanning that your serum level is 15 ng/ml.  At higher rates this half life is much reduce.  I need to do more reading on this, but I found one study that said that the half life at 100 ng/ml was only 5 days.  This seems like two short amount of time but if it is correct then compliance when supplementing is extremely critical.  This also explains why people at latitudes close to the equator catch viruses more easily in the rainy season when there is not much sun.

Ah, for a two week repose on the garden island of Kauai that would drive away the winter blues and chronic disease.  Maybe I can make that happen if I were president.  I would certainly declare a national emergency for vitamin D deficiency.  Living easy with the sun in my mind and vitamin D supplements at hand –  Pandemic Survivor

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