A quick review of the influenza-like illness in the US for the week ending January 21, shows the flu is staying low. The really interesting thing is that the trend is downward. There are lower highs of the incidence of patients seeking aid and lower lowers. This type of pattern in random events like the incidence of flu or a stock market is called a flag pattern. The pattern usually allows for a consolidation of events toward the convergence and then trends in the direction that formed the flag or downward in our case. If the incidence does not go above the baseline this year then something significant is happening. From the CDC:
What is that something that is really significant? Either we are doing a great job of vaccination or people are taking a significant amount of vitamin D which means the population is acting like it is summertime all year. If you note the spike in 2008 which was a mild year for the flu; it occurred about the first week of March. If we make it until the first of March without a significant spike then I say Waa Hoo! You can bet that a multi-national like P&G and their NyQuil sales are fully aware of what is happening with cold and flu trends.
Have you had a cold or the flu this year with a serum level of 25(OH)D above 50 ng/ml, let me know. – Pandemic Survivor