Downward Trend for the Flu

A quick review of the influenza-like illness in the US for the week ending January 21, shows the flu is staying low.  The really interesting thing is that the trend is downward.  There are lower highs of the incidence of patients seeking aid and lower lowers.  This type of pattern in random events like the incidence of flu or a stock market is called a flag pattern.  The pattern usually allows for a consolidation of events toward the convergence and then trends in the direction that formed the flag or downward in our case.  If the incidence does not go above the baseline this year then something significant is happening.  From the CDC:

What is that something that is really significant?  Either we are doing a great job of vaccination or people are taking a significant amount of vitamin D which means the population is acting like it is summertime all year.  If you note the spike in 2008 which was a mild year for the flu; it occurred about the first week of March.  If we make it until the first of March without a significant spike then I say Waa Hoo! You can bet that a multi-national like P&G and their NyQuil sales are fully aware of what is happening with cold and flu trends.

Have you had a cold or the flu this year with a serum level of 25(OH)D above 50 ng/ml, let me know.  – Pandemic Survivor


3 thoughts on “Downward Trend for the Flu

  1. Great post as usual, Mark. Enjoyed reading it. You asked for comments. I’ve had my 25(OH)D3 levels around 60 ng/ml for the past three years. The first winter I was totally cold/flu free. Last winter, I got something in January, the week after New Year’s, but it didn’t develop. The only symptoms was tiredness, the kind you get from flu, bad enough I had to take two days off work. But that was it. This was probably my body fighting the flu….and winning. I never got any upper respiratory symptoms. Just enervation. This January, another similar experience. I know I was fighting a flu-like virus, but it didn’t go anywhere and died off after two days. The symptom: muscle aches and pains, enough to knock me down for two days. Then presto, back at work and fine. I’m 60 years old so I know my body well. Two cold/flu viruses in the winter used to be my pattern. And they’d be the typical illnesses many folks get: begin w/ muscle aches, fever and chills, sore throat etc. and develop into a full-blown URI. With the vitamin D, I haven’t had any of these. Just the initial signs and symptoms which my immune system wipes out quickly and easily. I know it’s the vitamin D that’s responsible. Keep up your good work!

    • Thanks for the helpful comment. Looks like you have benefited from vitamin D and its effects on viruses. It seems to have greater effects on viruses at lower levels than necessary to fight bacterial infections. Maybe the researchers will get us there one day.

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